In Sudan, Another ‘Democracy’ Push Fails
As American diplomats evacuated the Sudanese capital, yet another American-supported “transition to democracy” seemed to be ending in chaos and civil war.
Nothing about the collapse should come as a surprise.
Since the Arab Spring, high-profile American efforts to promote democracy in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Algeria have failed. It is unclear why anybody in Foggy Bottom thought that Sudan was a better candidate for democracy than any of these countries, or that 2023 was a good year for a complex American political initiative in a region where U.S. power is widely seen in swift decline.
The harsh soil of Sudan offers little nourishment for democracy. Since independence in 1956, the country has had 17 attempted coups (six successful), two civil wars and a genocidal conflict in Darfur.
The 2011 secession of South Sudan cost Sudan 75% of its oil reserve fields, and continuing conflict in and around the oil-rich border areas has reduced production in both countries.
With heavy debt burdens, galloping inflation and an uneasy population, Sudan was desperate to escape American sanctions, attract new investment, and gain access to funds at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Economic isolation helped undermine Mr. Bashir and paved the way to his downfall. American strategists hoped, not entirely unreasonably, that similar pressure would force the army and the RSF to respect American red lines enough to make at least some token cosmetic gestures in the direction of democracy.
The failure of this calculation is behind the violence in Khartoum.
While the Americans entertained themselves with negotiating elaborate transition timetables and fine-tuning economic sanctions, other players focused on more practical goals.
They had good reason to do so. A literal gold rush across Sudan has empowered jihadists and attracted the attention of outsiders like Russia’s Wagner Group. (The Chef)
Even as its convict armies storm Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut, Wagner’s mercenaries are selling security services across Africa’s gold belt, including to the RSF in Sudan. The combination of gold, oil and other mineral resources has attracted the attention of China and the Gulf states as well.
The Biden administration has yet to grasp how far and how fast its position has weakened across the Middle East.
Countries like Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., which could once be expected to support or at least not actively frustrate American policy, are no longer deferential to the administration.
At the same time, Russia and China see themselves engaged in a zero-sum competition with the U.S. and will take any opportunity to frustrate American designs and undercut American power.
As the American-led economic and political order fades, Sudan’s military leaders are more interested in seizing opportunities than in letting power slip out of their hands.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65284948
By Beverly Ochieng
BBC Monitoring, Nairobi
The fighting that has erupted in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, and elsewhere in the country is a direct result of a vicious power struggle within the country’s military leadership.
The clashes are between the regular army and a paramilitary force called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Where is Sudan?
Sudan is in north-east Africa and is one of the largest countries on the continent, covering 1.2 million square miles. Borders the Red Sea which feeds the Suez Canal. (Military importance)
It is also one the poorest countries in the world, with its 46 million people living on an average annual income of $750 a head.
The population of Sudan is predominantly Muslim and the country’s official languages are Arabic and English.
Who is fighting who in Sudan?
Since the 2021 coup, Sudan has been run by a council of generals, led by the two military men at the center of this dispute:
- Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the armed forces and in effect the country’s president
- And his deputy and leader of the RSF, Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
- They have disagreed on the direction the country is going in and the proposed move towards civilian rule.
The main sticking points are plans to include the 100,000-strong RSF into the army, and who would then lead the new force.
Why did the fighting in Sudan start?
The shooting began on 15 April following days of tension as members of the RSF were redeployed around the country in a move that the army saw as a threat.
There had been some hope that talks could resolve the situation but these never happened.
It is disputed who fired the first shot but the fighting swiftly escalated in different parts of the country with more than 400 civilians dying, according to the World Health Organization.
Why have civilians got caught up?
Even though the conflict appears to be around the control of key installations, much of it is happening in urban areas and civilians have become the unwitting victims.
It is not exactly clear where the RSF bases are, but it seems that their fighters moved into densely populated areas.
The Sudanese air force has mounted air strikes in the capital, a city of more than six million people, which is likely to have led to civilian casualties.
Several ceasefires have been announced to allow people to escape the fighting but these have not been observed.
What are the Rapid Support Forces?
The RSF was formed in 2013 and has its origins in the notorious Janjaweed militia that brutally fought rebels in Darfur, where they were accused of ethnic cleansing.
Since then, Gen Dagalo has built a powerful force that has intervened in conflicts in Yemen and Libya. He has also developed economic interests including controlling some of Sudan’s gold mines.
The RSF has been accused of human rights abuses, including the massacre of more than 120 protesters in June 2019.
Such a strong force outside the army has been seen as a source of instability in the country.
Why is the military in charge of Sudan?
This fighting is the latest episode in bouts of tension that followed the 2019 ousting of long-serving President Omar al-Bashir, who came to power in a coup in 1989.
There were huge street protests calling for an end to his near-three decade rule and the army mounted a coup to get rid of him.
But civilians continued to campaign for the introduction of democracy.
A joint military-civilian government was then established but that was overthrown in another coup in October 2021, when Gen Burhan took over.
And since then the rivalry between Gen Burhan and Gen Dagalo has intensified.
A framework deal to put power back in the hands of civilians was agreed to last December but talks to finalize the details have failed.
What do the two sides want?
Gen Dagalo has said, in a series of tweets, that Gen Burhan’s government were “radical Islamists” and that he and the RSF were “fighting for the people of Sudan to ensure the democratic progress for which they have so long yearned”.
Many find this message hard to believe, given the brutal track record of the RSF.
Gen Burhan has said he supports the idea of returning to civilian rule, but that he will only hand over power to an elected government. Some suspect him of having links to ex-President Bashir and his allies, which the army has denied.
There are suspicions that both generals want to hang on to their positions of power, unwilling to lose the wealth and influence that go with them.
What are other countries doing?
There are fears that the fighting could further fragment the country, worsen political turbulence and draw in neighboring states.
Diplomats, who have played a crucial role in trying to urge a return to civilian rule, have been trying to find a way to get the two generals to talk.
Soon after the fighting began a regional bloc agreed to send three presidents – from Kenya, South Sudan and Djibouti – to Khartoum, but the mission never happened.
The UK, US and EU have all called for a ceasefire and talks to resolve the crisis and many countries are now focused on trying to get their citizens out.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59035053
Sudan coup: A really simple guide
25 October 2021
On top of the political tensions, Sudan’s economy has been in a deep crisis, with high inflation and shortages of food, fuel and medicine.
The coup has alarmed many international powers who have only recently been forging relations with Sudan after years of isolation.
What’s behind the tension?
Military leaders in the transitional government have demanded reforms from their civilian counterparts and called for the cabinet to be replaced. This was dismissed as a power grab by civilian leaders.
The top civilian figure, Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, blamed Bashir loyalists – many of whom are said to be embedded in the military, security services and other state institutions.
And recent weeks saw pro-army demonstrators bussed into the capital Khartoum, as well as large spontaneous counter-protests backing the prime minister.
The pro-military protesters accused the government of failing to revive the country’s fortunes.
Mr Hamdok’s moves to reform the economy – including slashing fuel subsidies – have been unpopular with some.
In previous decades the splintering of political parties and their inability to build consensus has time and again paved the way for the military to step in, mounting coups under the pretext of restoring order.
Today in Sudan, there are at least 80 political parties.
This same factionalism plagued the Sovereign Council, where internal divisions among both the military and civilian camps pushed political consensus yet further out of reach.
What is happening now?
The head of the Sovereign Council has given a speech announcing a state of emergency and dissolving both the cabinet and the council.
Gen Burhan also said elections would be held in July 2023.
Prime Minister Hamdok has reportedly been detained by soldiers along with several other ministers. It also appears that the state TV and radio headquarters have been taken over by the military.
The internet has also been restricted.
The African Union, the UN and the EU, as well as the Arab League and the US, have expressed deep concern over Monday’s coup.
What might happen next?
The coup is not necessarily a “done deal”, suggests Africa analyst Alex de Waal, given Sudan’s “tremendous capacity for civic mobilization”.
Whenever the military has tried to overstep the mark “the street mobilized and pulled them back – and I suspect that is what we are going to see now”, he told BBC Newshour.
According to the information ministry’s Facebook page, the prime minister has called on people to come out in support of the government.
Pictures and reports coming out of Khartoum show demonstrators out in the city.
The military have also been deployed to restrict movements.
In June 2019, before the democratic transition was agreed, soldiers opened fire on protesters in Khartoum killing at least 87 people.
Memories of that massacre will be playing on the minds of people as the two sides confront each other.