Tensions with China are at their worst in 40 years, Taiwan’s defense minister has said, warning of the risk of an accidental strike between the two.
The Defense Minister’s comments came after China sent a “record number” of military jets into Taiwan’s air defense zone for four consecutive days.
Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state. China, however, views Taiwan as a breakaway province.
It has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.
While Chinese jets have not been flown all the way to the island, Taiwan has warned that there is a risk of a “misfire”.
Taiwan’s air defense zone, which it monitors for threats, extends over an area that covers the Taiwan Strait and a large swathe of the Chinese mainland. They consider jets crossing an unofficial line between China and Taiwan as an incursion.
Taiwan also warned China would be capable of mounting a full-scale invasion of the island by 2025.
The Taiwanese Parliament is currently considering a multi-billion-dollar defense spending bill to build missiles and warships.
A number of Western allies of Taiwan have expressed concern at China’s open display of military might recently.
However, US President Joe Biden said his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping had agreed to abide by the “Taiwan agreement”.
Mr Biden appeared to be referring to Washington’s longstanding “one China” policy under which it recognizes China rather than Taiwan.
However, this agreement also allows Washington to maintain a “robust unofficial” relationship with Taiwan. The US sells arms to Taiwan as part of Washington’s Taiwan Relations Act, which states that the US must help Taiwan defend itself.
So what is the story about this Taiwan thing?
Let’ satrt with a little history and a fellow named Chiang Kai Shek.
Chiang Kai-shek was a Chinese military and political leader who led the Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) for five decades and was head of state of the Chinese Nationalist government between 1928 and 1949.
Chiang Kai-shek was born on October 31st,1887 in Zhejiang, an eastern coastal province of China. His father was a merchant. At the age of 18 he went to military training college in Japan.
He returned to China in 1911 to take part in the uprising that overthrew the Qing Dynasty and established a Chinese republic.
Chiang became a member of the Chinese Nationalist Party (known as the Kuomintang or KMT), founded by his brother-in-law, Sun Yat-sen.
Supported by Sun Yat-sen, Chiang was appointed commandant of the Chinese Military Academy in Canton in 1924, where he built up the Nationalist army.
After Sun’s death in 1925, Chiang became leader of the Koumintang party. He spearheaded the Northern Expedition which reunified most of China under a National Government based in Nanjing. In 1928, he led the suppression of the Chinese Communist Party.
Chiang oversaw a modest program of reform in China but the government’s resources were focused on fighting internal opponents, including the Communists.
From 1931 on, Chiang also had to contend with a Japanese invasion in Manchuria, in the north-east of China.
In 1937, Japan launched a full-scale invasion of China.
When the United States came into the war against Japan in 1941, China became one of the Allied Powers. So, he was our ally in WWII.
As Chiang’s position within China weakened, his status abroad grew and in November 1943 he travelled to Cairo to meet US President Franklin D Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.
After the war, in 1946, civil war broke out between the Koumintang party and the Communists.
In 1949, the Communists were victorious, establishing the People’s Republic of China.
Chiang and the remaining Koumintang forces fled to the island of Taiwan.
There Chiang established a government in exile which he led for the next 25 years.
This government continued to be recognised by many countries as the legitimate government of China, and Taiwan controlled China’s seat in the United Nations until the end of Chiang’s life. He died on April 5, 1975.
So, Taiwan is an island which has for all practical purposes been independent since 1950, but which China regards as a rebel region that must be reunited with the mainland – by force if necessary.
When the Korean War broke out in 1950, the United States, seeking to prevent the further spread of communism in Asia, sent the Seventh Fleet to patrol the Taiwan Strait and deter Communist China from invading Taiwan.
US military intervention forced Mao’s government to delay its plan to invade Taiwan. At the same time, with US backing, the government of Taiwan continued to hold China’s seat in the United Nations.
Aid from the US and a successful land reform program helped the Taiwanese government solidify its control over the island and modernize the economy.
Chiang promised to fight back and recover the mainland and built up troops on islands off the Chinese coast. In 1954, an attack by Chinese Communist forces on those islands led the US to sign a Mutual Defense Treaty with Chiang’s government.
When a second military crisis over the offshore islands in 1958 led the US to the brink of war with Communist China, Washington forced Chiang Kai-shek to officially abandon his policy of fighting back to reclaim the mainland.
In 1972, Taiwan formally lost its seat in the United Nations to the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
In 1979, the United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China and ended its military alliance with the government of Taiwan.
However, that same year, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which commits the U.S. to help Taiwan defend itself from attack by the Chinese.
That is where we are today.
I found an interesting article about where we may go from here.
The Federalist
By Chuck DeVore
SEPTEMBER 9, 2021
When the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) decides to quash the island nation of Taiwan’s successful run at democratic self-governance, will the Chinese try to limit the conflict to Taiwan and its immediate waters, or will they immediately embark on a wider conflict involving the United States, Japan, and other nations? It’s a big question.
In other words, when this war comes, will the CCP try to keep the conflict confined to Taiwan, or will it strike out broadly, seeking to preempt Japanese and U.S. forces that might attempt to come to Taiwan’s assistance?
Once again, let’s look at history for the answer.
In the First World War, imperial Germany’s decision to invade France via Belgium in response to war in the Balkans between Serbia and their Austro-Hungarian allies is seen by historians and strategists for triggering the United Kingdom’s entry into the war against Germany.
Why did Germany attack France when its initial threat was Russia to the east?
The main reason was that planners in the German General Staff thought Russia was too large to be defeated quickly. Thus, France needed to be knocked out first in a quick blow — as happened in the Franco-Prussian War in 1870, when France was defeated in six months.
What might have been a regional war between Austria-Hungary and Serbia following the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, took an terrible turn when Russia ordered the mobilization of its army in late July.
Germany declared war on Russia two days later, with France ordering mobilization the same day. Two days after that, Germany declared war on France.
German planners decided that the only way to win the war quickly was to march through Belgium and Luxembourg, risking a British declaration of war. This occurred the following day, largely dooming Germany to defeat.
Discounting diplomatic considerations, German war planning was solely driven by military considerations of time, space, and force — France, first and quickly, then Russia.
Similarly, many analysts believe the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would seek to attack only Taiwan during an effort to seize the island.
This assumes that China believes it could successfully deter the United States and Japan from coming to Taiwan’s aid. But deterrence can’t be ensured.
Thus, China will likely have to assume that both the United States and Japan will act to prevent Taiwan’s conquest. As with German war planners in 1914, China cannot assume it can choose its opponents.
World War II Parallels
A generation later, Nazi-led Germany’s attack on Poland in 1939 after securing a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union and then their attack on France in May 1940, forced a French surrender in only 46 days. In June 1941, Hitler broke his deal with Stalin invaded the Soviet Union.
In China’s case, it has successfully allied with Russia, but in a largely naval contest in the Pacific, Russian assistance will be limited. Beyond Russia, it’s hard to imagine China pulling off a diplomatic coup by allying with other nations. With whom would they strike a deal? Japan? India? The United States?
Imperial Japan’s decision to attack the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, and the oil and resource-rich British and Dutch colonies, came in response to U.S. economic embargoes on Japan.
The U.S. demanded Japan give up its imperial ambitions or face a debilitating loss of American oil exports.
Japanese war planners hoped to defeat U.S. naval forces piecemeal, first by destroying the Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor.
Then, the Japanese hoped, the prospect of a long and bloody slog across the Pacific would force the Americans to sue for peace.
Japanese planners saw Americans as not having the stomach for the prospect of years of fighting against the spiritually superior Japanese.
Japanese planners also knew time was not on their side. America’s massive industrial advantage — about six-fold that of Japan’s — ensured that as time went on, Japan’s prewar naval superiority would shrink rapidly.
Japanese war planners, like Germany’s leading up to 1914, appeared to give little consideration to diplomacy.
Their desire to expand their empire in China and recently seized French Indochina meant that they would never agree to U.S. demands to abandon their ambitions. Thus, with the decision to fight already made, the only remaining choices were how to carry out the conflict.
As with Japan in 1941, China must have secure maritime access to import oil and raw materials from the nations along the South China Sea.
The sole difference in this historical comparison that appears to fail, is the issue of time. Japan was running out of time while China seems to have time on its side.
Measured in purchasing power, China’s economy is increasingly larger than the U.S. economy.
China is engaged in a massive naval buildup, launching more naval tonnage than the United States and Japan combined are willing or able to produce.
To top it off, China is quadrupling its strategic nuclear force and may build substantially more nuclear missiles.
If China so decides, it might simply wait until it has a substantial advantage over the combination of Taiwan, the United States, and Japan.
As such, China could move on Taiwan at a time of its choosing while warning Japan and the United States to stay out of the fight — or else.
The risk of doing so is that deterrence only works if the enemy is deterred. In other words, China can lay the groundwork for deterrence through strength, but it is up to leaders in Japan and the United States to decide if they are, in fact, deterred from intervening on Taiwan’s behalf.
But several considerations make it less likely that China will want to wait to conquer Taiwan when it has a massive advantage.
First, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and Chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi is 68 years old. He is ruthlessly ambitious and has been building a cult of personality to rival Mao’s. Xi will not want to leave the conquest of Taiwan to his successor.
Second, every year that passes sees Taiwan develop more and more of its own unique culture and political traditions. Young Taiwanese are more likely than ever to see themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.
In addition, America’s massive loss of face in Afghanistan and the perception that President Joe Biden’s decision-making abilities are in serious doubt could contribute to China deciding to move sooner, rather than later.
If so, expect China to conduct an aggressive first strike, hitting Taiwan, Japan, and the United States simultaneously and with surprise.
This attack would likely include missile strikes on Guam, Hawaii, Okinawa, the Japanese Home Islands, and even cyberattacks on key U.S. infrastructure.
China’s intent would be four-fold: to preempt forces that could help Taiwan and prolong its defense; to destroy foreign ability to come to Taiwan’s rescue; to demoralize foreign adversaries, causing them to sue for peace; and to set the stage for a globe-dominating Chinese empire led by the Chinese Communist Party.
Will history repeat itself? Let’s hope not, but the possibility definitely exists.
Caller? What do you think? Should we step in now and support Taiwan, or sit back and wait to see what happens next?