In May 2018, Nicolas Maduro was re-elected to a second term as President of Venezuela in elections which have widely been dismissed as rigged.
At the prospect of another six years of Maduro government and with the economy in freefall, the head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, declared himself interim president on January 23, 2019.
Mr Guaidó argues that Mr Maduro is a “usurper” and that the presidency is therefore vacant, in which case the constitution calls for the head of the National Assembly to step in.
The US and more than 50 other countries have recognized Mr. Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela but Maduro’s key allies, Russia and China, have stuck by the Maduro.
The two sides have been locked in a stand-off since January with Guaidó trying to sway the military, a key player in the country, to switch its allegiance.
A government like Maduro’s might not last long in, say, France, because neighboring countries and the European Union would exert sufficient diplomatic, political and economic pressure to punish the rogue regime for its actions.
The Organization of American States has tried for two years to expel Venezuela because it is no longer a democracy. But member countries like Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua – all of which have strongman leaders support Maduro.
However, Latin American neighbors are not Venezuela’s main supporters. China and Russia are largely keeping Maduro’s bankrupt regime afloat by buying oil concessions and extending the repayment period on loans.
Therein lies the greatest problem we face in trying to help the Venezuelan people.
Sending American troops in to aid in overthrowing the Maduro regime could create a proxy war pitting the US against China and Russia.
I know what you are thinking. We have already been in that situation many times throughout our history.
The big difference here is that this war would be in our own hemisphere, and would require a completely different set of alliances than those we counted on in previous conflicts.
Russia and China, have warned the US not to intervene in support of the opposition leader Guaidó’s attempt to lead the country.
So what can be done?
It appears a group of mercenaries decided to solve the problem and make a little money to boot.
I found a great article on this plot in The Guardian written by
Julian Borger, Joe Daniels and Chris McGreal about something called “Operation Gideon”.
As get-rich-quick schemes go it was unusually complicated. Invade a foreign country you know little about. Abduct its president and take him to the US. Collect a $15million bounty from the US government – and maybe an even bigger payoff from the people who then seize power.
This seemed like a foolproof plan to a former US army staff sergeant, Jordan Goudreau, as he mapped it out in a luxury Miami apartment in late 2019. The 43-year-old Canadian-American was certain his years as a green beret in Iraq and Afghanistan had prepared him for the task.
And for the opponents of Maduro he was talking to, it must have sounded convincing – even after the failure of a previous coup attempt in 2019.
Representatives of Juan Guaidó – the opposition leader recognized as Venezuela’s legitimate president by the US and most of its allies – signed a fat contract engaging Goudreau to overthrow Maduro.
But in interviews with the Guardian, a senior opposition figure said they grew to doubt Goudreau and eventually broke with him months before he launched a disastrous raid this week that was similar to the botched 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba.
The flaws in his plan were laid bare as two bedraggled ex-US special forces soldiers were paraded alongside other members of the ragged invasion force.
Airan Berry and Luke Denman were captured at sea before they even set foot on Venezuelan soil.
Eight people were reported killed in the botched invasion and more than 100 others arrested. Berry and Denman later appeared on Venezuelan state television outlining the supposed plan to seize the presidential palace and take Maduro to the US.
Goudreau announced what he called a “daring, amphibious raid” on Sunday afternoon. It was codenamed Operation Gideon after a biblical story symbolizing the victory of a small military against a much stronger opponent.
“Our units have been activated in the south, west and in the east of Venezuela,” he said, dressed in a golf shirt and standing next to a former Venezuelan national guard captain wearing body armour, Javier Nieto Quintero.
But by then the plot had already fallen apart, not least because two days earlier the Associated Press had published a long investigation exposing the plan. If the AP knew it, it is likely the Venezuelan government did too.
Goudreau served in the Canadian military in the 1990s and studied at the University of Calgary before joining the US green berets. He spent 15 years as a medical sergeant, doing several stints in Iraq and Afghanistan.
After leaving the military Goudreau founded a security contractor, Silvercorp USA, in 2018. The company’s original plan was to provide guards to protect American schools from mass shootings.
Silvercorp’s website brags on a series of overblown claims including that Goudreau led “international security teams for the President of the United States” (he had provided private security at Trump political rallies).
Early in 2019 Goudreau was providing security for a concert in aid of Venezuelan refugees on the Colombian border organized by Richard Branson, the billionaire owner of the Virgin conglomerate. There he met Clíver Alcalá, a Venezuelan former general who defected to the opposition. The pair began talking about how to overthrow Maduro.
By September the plotting had progressed to a meeting in Miami between Goudreau and Juan José Rendón, a Venezuelan exile appointed by Guaidó to strategize ways of taking power.
Rendón was well known in Latin American politics. He resigned as a strategist in Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos’s re-election campaigns amid allegations that he accepted bribes from drug lords. He was also accused of attempting to manipulate Mexico’s 2012 election.
Guaidó had set up an advisory group to brainstorm ways to end the Maduro regime. Rendón’s job was to advise the commission on how to make that happen.
He said the commission explored all legal means of ousting Maduro, including piracy laws. The commission also interviewed security consultants, mostly ex-soldiers offering specialist services for astronomical fees.
“There were no limits – $1bn, $1.5bn,” Rendón told the Guardian.
Goudreau’s firm was asking for far less – about $213m from Venezuela’s future oil earnings and a $1.5m retainer.
“He was supposedly preparing something in Venezuela that would have gone through the Colombian border,” Rendón said.
Goudreau told the Venezuelans he had 800 men ready to invade.
A handful of meetings resulted in an agreement in October for “an operation to kidnap Nicolás Maduro … remove the current regime and install the recognized Venezuelan President Juan Guaidó”.
Goudreau has made public pages from the agreement – one of them signed by Guaidó. The would-be president has said that it is not his signature and has previously denied any involvement..
Rendón took the agreement seriously enough to pay Goudreau $50,000 of his own money to cover expenses.
Under the agreement Silvercorp had 45 days to train and equip the invasion force before teams of men would infiltrate Venezuela to seize key locations and buildings, and encourage a general uprising.
But Rendón soon came to doubt that Goudreau had the military resources or competence he claimed, and grew concerned by his erratic behavior – including his repeated demands for money.
Rendón showed the Guardian copies of increasingly angry texts he said were from Goudreau, demanding a $1.5m advance.
Neither Goudreau nor his lawyer returned calls seeking comment.
Rendón said he lost confidence in Goudreau because of his “character, his moods” and “lack of respect”. He said Guaidó also began to suspect that Goudreau was talking too much.
“He was meeting with people in Colombia before meeting with us that were related to groups that we don’t engage with – because they are related to the regime,” said Rendón.
The dispute over the $1.5m retainer came to a head in a blazing argument in November when Goudreau, and other exiles confronted Rendón at his Miami apartment.
Goudreau left without his money. Rendón said he heard nothing more until April when he received a lawyer’s letter demanding payment of the $1.5m.
Rendón was not the first person to back away from a deal with Goudreau. Drew White, who served with Goudreau, Berry and Denman in the Middle East, helped set up Silvercorp. But he pulled out in 2019 when Goudreau started cooking up the plan to abduct Maduro, deciding it was too far fetched.
Goudreau decided to press ahead anyway.
Preparations on the ground began to unravel in late March when Colombian police stopped Jorge Alberto Molinares driving along the Caribbean coast.
His car was packed with assault rifles, flak jackets and military helmets he was moving to a safe house in Riohacha, 55 miles from the Venezuelan border.
The authorities had begun watching the house after the landlord complained that the plotters had missed rent payments.
Molinares told investigators he was delivering the shipment to a man known as to “El Pantera”, or the Panther, who Venezuelan authorities said was Robert Colina Ibarra – who was killed in the botched invasion.
Goudreau’s plans were further complicated when his ally Alcalá, the former general, was indicted on drug trafficking charges.
Before turning himself over to authorities Alcalá told the Guardian that he was working with the knowledge of “American contractors and the Colombian government” though he would not go into further details.
Unveiling the indictments in March, US authorities also offered a $15m reward for information leading to Maduro’s capture and prosecution.
With the big payoff agreed with Rendón dead, that made a potential payout from the US government all the more important for Goudreau. (The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, raised eyebrows this week by denying “direct” involvement in the plot.)
After the would-be liberators of Venezuela were herded ashore on Sunday, Maduro claimed that his agents had infiltrated the operation long ago and were ready to pounce. “We knew everything,” he said. “What they ate, what they didn’t eat. What they drank. Who financed them.”
Guaidó said that if the Venezuelan president let the operation go ahead in that knowledge, he had blood on his hands. “Nicolás Maduro you are responsible. They knew about the operation, they infiltrated them and waited for them to massacre them,” he said.
Goudreau sounded more optimistic even as Operation Gideon collapsed around him.
“I’m out a lot of money, a lot,” he said this week. “A lot of us came together to do this. I’ve been a freedom fighter my whole life. This is all I know.”
So, here is the elephant in the room.
Did the US government know about Operation Gideon?
President Donald Trump on Tuesday denied his administration was somehow involved.
“I just got information. Nothing to do with our government, but I just got information on that. We’ll find out, we just heard about it. Whatever it is we’ll let you know, but it has nothing to do with our government,” he said.
Was a get rich quick plan by a group of wild mercenaries?
Was it a covert operation conducted by the US intelligence operatives?
If it was, do you support or oppose using such tactics against our enemies.
I for one say, if it works and can save the lives of innocent people, use whatever means are necessary. We have done it in the past in Mexico and throughout Central America.
Callers?